类别:行业 机构:招银国际证券有限公司 研究员:Gary Pang 日期:2019-09-24

Amidst intensified price war, the major players suffered from subdued profitabilityin 1H19, as we expected. There is no upturn signal observed as YTO/STOrecorded double-digit ASP decrease to maintain robust volume growth in Aug. We expect the competition to continue and culminate in 2020E, and suggest towatch for consolidation beneficiaries, such as ZTO (ZTO US, BUY, TP: US$21.76), backed by solid share gains and prominent cost control capability.

    Dampened profitability amid accelerated consolidation. We saw furtherbifurcation between volume and revenue growth from major players’ 1H19results. “Tongda”s recorded volume/revenue growth of 43%/35% YoY onaverage in 1H19. We maintain our conservative outlook toward marginsafterwards, as all players are sprinting to carve up e-commerce parcel shareswith aggressive pricing tactics and the growth divergence continues to widen. In Aug, we witnessed SF/YTO/STO ASP decline expand to 8%/17%/14% YoYin return for 33%/49%/56% volume YoY growth. We believe ASP accelerateddownward trend bodes the upcoming culmination of price war in 2020E, basedon our prudent ASP forecasts (-10% in 2020E for “Tongda”s)。

    SF’s impact to low-end market landscape is limited. We view that SF’srecent volume recovery is largely due to penetration into e-commerce parcelswith preferential products rollout. However, we believe it will barely menace“Tongda”s’ leadership in low-end market. In view of the trade-off betweenvolume contribution and ASP dilution of e-commerce parcels, we believe SF’se-commerce parcels will increase modestly from 1.7mn shipments per day to2.5mn, implying upside of 24mn shipments per month which is equiv. to lessthan 1% market volume. Therefore, we expect low-end market landscape tobe barely affected by SF, given its limited exposure.

    New business to be spotlighted in foreseeable future. State Councilpromulgated Planning on global competitiveness enhancement intransport last week to encourage development ofcomprehensive logistic services (e.g. cold chain, heavy cargo and crossborderdelivery)。 We expect new business to fuel LT growth against thebackdrop of e-commerce inevitable slowdown, despite their little revenuecontribution and loss-making condition at current stage.

    Prefer consolidation beneficiaries with high e-commerce exposure. Wereiterate ZTO as our top pick, and believe it, as leader in mid/low-end market,will benefit from accelerated sector consolidation, backed by 1) continuedshare gains, 2) solid cost control capability and 3) high e-commerce parcelexposure.